To Engage or Not to Engage: The Attribution Conundrum

Article Type: Customer Intelligence

Published: April 30, 2024

Reading Time: 5 minutes

Overview

John Wanamaker, a successful US merchant, once said: "Half the money I spend on advertising is wasted; the trouble is, I don't know which half." This phrase was coined over 100 years ago, but this problem is just as relevant today as it was a century ago. This article explores the fundamental challenge of marketing attribution and the critical importance of knowing not just which customers to engage, but which customers NOT to engage.

Key Takeaways

Marketing has made leaps and bounds to become not just data-driven but data-obsessed. As a marketer, you regularly check your performance data, whether it's analyzing your recent campaigns or reporting on your business KPIs. But with more data comes more problems. Do you really know whether your marketing is working?

The Attribution Controversy

At Kognitiv, we have a long history of loyalty management (85 years, to be exact!). One controversial question that often comes up in loyalty conversations is: Do your loyalty members spend more with you because of how successful your loyalty program is, or did they join the program because they were inherently buying more in the first place?

This question doesn't only apply to loyalty members—it's a fundamental question that every marketer should be asking, whether they are looking at their paid media, loyalty program, or email campaign performance data. Are these efforts driving purchases, or did those customers already intend to buy?

Two Critical Attribution Issues

When we talk about marketing performance, we inevitably have to talk about everyone's all-time favorite problem: Attribution. There are two issues worth highlighting:

  1. Multiple Touchpoints: As a rule of thumb, you need on average 8 touchpoints before a customer is ready to buy your product. With the increase in advertising spend, the emergence of more channels, and more brands communicating with their customers, this number is probably even higher now. How do you know which of those touchpoints led to the sale?

  2. Incremental Impact: The second question is whether your campaigns influenced the sale at all. What a lot of companies are not doing is looking at which conversions were NOT a result of their marketing activities.

The Problem of Conversion Inflation

It is tempting to attribute every sale to your marketing activities, but that's not what you should be doing. Being discerning about which sales to attribute to a marketing activity can help brands be a lot more targeted and effective in their marketing tactics.

Knowing exactly which activities are driving sales, and which of your customers require an incentive versus which ones will buy on their own allows brands to optimize their budget and invest in campaigns that drive additional revenue.

Consequences of Not Knowing Who NOT to Engage

When brands fail to identify which customers should not be engaged, several negative outcomes occur:

1. Oversaturation of Communication (Your Customers Leave)

We have all received thousands of emails from different brands; our mailboxes get flooded with promotional messages and reminders to buy yet another product we are not very interested in. When brands focus on the quantity of engagement, it results in customer fatigue which in turn negatively affects customer satisfaction and often forces them to simply unsubscribe from your communication and disengage from your brand.

2. Wasted Discounting (You Lose Money)

Mass discounting is still one of the most used promotional tactics. While we believe there is a time and place for discounts, we know that you can optimize your offer budget and drive even more purchases by being strategic about when to offer discounts and when not to. When brands are constantly screaming "Sale!", they drive loyalty to discounts, not their brand.

3. Poor Conversion Rate (Your Performance Suffers)

When you don't have a clear understanding of who to target, you end up wasting resources on marketing to individuals who have no interest in your products or services resulting in little to no conversions. This puts more pressure on marketers to stretch their budgets and prove ROI.

The Case for Doing Nothing: A Real-World Example

Consider this scenario: A customer regularly purchases the same dog food every 10 days. Dog owners know that you do not switch their food—you stick to one brand unless you have a compelling reason to switch. At checkout, the customer receives a 15% coupon for this box of food.

What a nice surprise… but did it influence behavior? Definitely not. This 15% discount could've been used to get the customer to try new dog treats, maybe a supplement or a pack of vitamins for joint health. Or, the brand could have done nothing.

How to Know When NOT to Engage Customers

There are several critical capabilities that must be in place:

1. Connect Your Tech

Disconnected martech and data silos are one of the main reasons why brands struggle to understand their customers and tailor their messages to the right audience. Different teams, whether it's a paid media, loyalty, CRM, or CX team, need to work together on one connected customer engagement strategy and look at a holistic customer profile across channels and touchpoints not just the area they are responsible for.

2. Calculate Customers' Individual Purchase Cycles

Marketers are so used to talking about averages: average order value, average engagement rate, average repurchase cycle—they forget that each of their customers is unique. It is critical to know your customers' individual behavior patterns, so you can tailor your marketing efforts with precision.

3. Track Your Customers' Lifecycle Stages

Tracking your customers' lifecycle stages is essential for building strong and lasting brand loyalty. If your customer is in a healthy steady relationship with your brand, don't just send them another generic offer. You can instead use that budget on customers who are at risk of leaving or decreasing their engagement with your brand. And leave your "gone" customers behind, don't clutter their inboxes.

4. Use Real-Time Data

Customers' behavior can change at a whim, making real-time data table stakes for successful marketing. Two-week-old dashboard screenshots in a PowerPoint don't help brands be more agile. Brands need to be able to respond to new data and new trends in the moment to deliver highly relevant content to customers who need it.

5. Look Into the Future

It's not only about knowing your customers' past behavior, but also about predicting their future moves. Brands that predict their customers' behavior can proactively meet their customers' needs and enhance their overall experience by personalizing every brand interaction. And yes, it can also mean doing nothing.

6. Employ Marketing Automation

By leveraging marketing automation, brands can take their customer engagement game to a new level. The amount of data you have is overwhelming; knowing which customers to engage and which customers not to engage, with what message, when, and on what channel becomes increasingly difficult as your customer base grows. Marketing automation makes it possible to activate on customer insights at scale.

7. Prioritize Customer Lifetime Value (CLV)

Brands often focus on immediate sales, rather than driving customer lifetime value, which limits their growth potential. When brands track and invest in CLV, they can prioritize efforts to retain and nurture high-value customers, thereby maximizing their revenue potential.

Leveraging AI and Machine Learning for Customer Engagement

Knowing which customers to engage is just as important as knowing which not to engage, so you can better optimize your budget, build stronger customer relationships, and ultimately grow your revenue. Thankfully, you don't have to do all of this manually. With the help of AI and machine learning, you can gain a complete picture of your customers, you can predict their behavior and respond with relevant communication at scale.

Kognitiv's AI-Powered Solutions

At Kognitiv, we've built a suite of products that enable brands to deliver relevant experiences to their customers in the moments that matter. At the core of our products is a proprietary Kognition AI/ML engine, that leverages hundreds of AI/ML models to deliver predictive and prescriptive intelligence you can easily act on. With always-on data-driven attribution, you can track your customers' journeys across channels and touchpoints and understand exactly which of your marketing activities are driving incrementality.

Kognitiv Product Solutions

Kognitiv Pulse

Track and predict your customers' lifecycles with AI/ML-powered insights and activation to maximize customer lifetime value.

Kognitiv Ignite

Enable 1:1 personalization at scale with AI-native data activation across owned channels.

Kognitiv Inspire

Launch and manage a successful loyalty program with a quick-to-deploy, scalable loyalty system with 200+ connectors for easy omni-channel activation. Kognitiv has 85 years of loyalty management history.

Kognitiv Amplify

Intelligently acquire and engage customers across paid channels with outcome-based AI/ML optimization for paid display, video, social and programmatic.

About Kognitiv

Kognitiv has 85 years of experience in loyalty management. The company provides AI and machine learning-powered solutions for customer engagement, loyalty programs, and marketing optimization.

Contact Information

Email: [email protected]

Website: https://www.kognitiv.com

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